Most panfishermen believe it’s possible to predict a hot bite. Ask them how and most say timing is the critical factor. Being on time for those first- and last-ice binges would place high on the list. First and last ice are the times to plan for a few 3- or 4-day weekends—if the weather holds.

Isn’t that always the case? The overriding factor is always weather. Sometimes, though, it’s better to take spur-of-the-moment trips in January than to plan ahead for trips during the binge-feeding episodes that form the parenthesis of the ice season. An oasis of fine weather in January can produce bigger panfish.

Brian “Bro” Brosdahl, a northern Minnesota panfish guide, looks forward to finding an oasis or two of warm, sunny days every winter. “My biggest bluegill ever came in the middle of the January doldrums,” Brosdahl says. “An Arctic blast came through, as usual. But once the weather stabilized, the fishing became fantastic. A few days later another front passed and the fishing tanked again. That small window of peak activity was the best bite for big fish we had all winter.”

Brosdahl believes first- or last-ice bites, while always hot, aren’t necessarily the best periods to target big fish. “Late in the season, when ice-fishing is done around here, Dave Genz and I follow the late bite north,” he says. “Up in Canada we get on some real hot, aggressive bites. But everything bites. It’s hard to sort through all the little ones. You have a big one on the screen ready to bite and a little one comes out of nowhere and takes the jig. That happens a lot.

“The best time to target really big bluegills is during January, during those flare-ups of nice weather. The little ones are around, but the fish seem to have an aura around them. They seem to set up their own space with very little or no competition from other ‘gills within that space.

“Most of my really good days are with a little bit of precipitation coming in,” he continues. “Not the algid Alberta Clippers streaking out of the north—but a good, moist system. If the system is coming from any direction but north, I’m on the ice. Before a system passes and as it passes, the bite gets hot. When the weather’s happening, they’re moving. After the system passes, bluegills and crappies get real tough. I don’t know why severe cold fronts shut them down, but when the barometer rises real fast, it’s not good. A falling barometer can be good, but not if it falls too fast. But, if it’s snowing or raining when the air temperatures are seasonable or warmer than average—big panfish are chewing everywhere.

“I would be the last one to say, ‘Don’t go’ because of a cold front—you can always make some bluegills bite, no matter what the conditions. But there are times you can identify when it’s better, such as unseasonably warm weather that lingers for three or four days. Warm weather, something above freezing, can really turn panfish on—especially during last ice. But during the middle of winter, while a warm spell may not mean fast fishing—the kind you experience at last ice—it can precipitate one of the best trophy panfish bites of the year.”

Tactics from the Oasis

The oasis bite differs from those bites that bracket the season. Panfish are less aggressive and less competitive. Even bigger panfish seldom seem to prefer big meals in mid winter, responding better to smaller packages. My best presentation for big bluegills during an oasis of unseasonably warm weather is a 1/80-ounce Innovative Sports Group (I.S.G.) jig tipped with an I.S.G. Plankton Series plastic tail.

Don’t listen to me, however. I’m a known heretic. Daring to promote plastic tails over livebait at an ice-fishing show is commensurate with proclaiming the edicts of the Church to be mere pish-posh during the Inquisition or the Salem Witch Trials; so it is only by the grace of a more liberal modern society that I am able to proclaim this widely suppressed fact: Little plastic tails catch bigger panfish throughout the doldrums and any attenuating oasis each winter.

Brosdahl and Genz don’t believe me, however, so I’m an outcast, a heretic and a fuddy duddy. “Stick with droppers and lighter stuff in that window,” Brosdahl says. “Panfish aren’t ready for 1/8-ounce spoons loaded with wax worms the way they are in spring. My main attraction during an oasis is a size #16 to size #24 Mustad or Umpqua Feather Merhants fly hook on 2- to 3-pound fluorocarbon attached to a dropper weight. In some states, the dropper can be a jig. I use a Lindy Genz Worm to get the rig down, with a 4-inch dropper looped over the gap between segments of the Genz Worm. I tie a loop knot then cinch it down. The finger of line coming off that point on the jig is easier to see with the down-view (Aqua-View pointed down). I occasionally catch fish on the larger Genz Worm, which I bait with two or three wax worms. They often come up to look at this big chunk of meat in the water, then take the smaller hook, baited with maggots.”

The bottom line is the practice of downscaling baits and lures. The smallest plastic baits are about 1/2-inch long, like the I.S.G. Copepod (my favorite). And, probably because bigger fish are active yet less aggressive during an oasis, I always seem to do better with natural colors like black and motor oil, as opposed to the more highly touted chartreuse, pink and metal-flake affairs. Even in relatively cloudy water, I find natural colors work best.

During an oasis, big fish are less likely to feed competitively. “A lot of times fish make a pass at the bait with their mouth closed and it moves the rod tip,” Brosdahl says. “People not using cameras are setting hooks at this point. If it was a big fish, it’s gone. Big fish are spooky. When you set the hook hard and miss, bigger ’gills won’t reappear in the hole.”

Winter turns landscapes into deserts, replete with blowing snow storms over vast stretches of frozen water. The oasis, here, comes not from a sheltered spring surrounded by palms, but from a turn in the weather during the heart of winter. The sweet relief of a January thaw signals a serious upturn in the panfish bite—and it could be your best window of opportunity for trophies.