Learning about bites too late is a grand old American pastime. Should have been there last week. Is it possible to forecast when lakes were about to turn red hot?

Fisheries rise and decline for a variety of interrelated reasons. But the fisheries on the launchpad, ready for a meteoric rise in catch-rates and average size, tend to fall into one or more of these categories:

* Conditions during the walleye spawn were perfect several years in a row a few years back;

* Quality regulations have been successful, allowing average size and catch-rates to rise;

* A high-fat, high protein prey species like smelt or alewives has been introduced or is rebounding from a decline;

* Climatic or other conditions are changing in a way favorable to walleyes;

* For some reason, people are simply ignoring walleyes in a great fishery.

Northern Changes

In-Fisherman Field Editor and former Ontario resource manager, Gord Pyzer, insists global warming is more readily noticeable the farther north you go, and he wonders: Will it benefit or cripple fish populations? “It’s one of those things where a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, because the issue is so complex,” Pyzer says. “But whether you believe in global warming or not, the past 15 years have been the warmest on record. We’re seeing climate change and Bay of Quinte, Ontario, one of the world’s top trophy walleye fisheries, is an example.”

Logic insists it would become a better walleye fishery because of warming, but walleyes share that water with smallmouths. Earlier ice-outs in spring and the abundance of good spawning habitat make things optimal for smallmouths. In Lake Oahe, South Dakota, walleyes could well be the winners, but in Quinte, they could eventually lose out because habitat may favor bass.

“The belt for the best crappie or smallmouth fishing is shifting north,” Pyzer says. “Marginal to mediocre fisheries—such as lakes too shallow to guarantee over-winter survival in the North—could shift and improve. The big losers could be the walleyes in the southern end of their range, where waters could become too warm. Walleyes require a reasonable amount of time in water under 50°F during winter for the spawn to be successful. Eggs don’t develop properly in a walleye with a body temperature that rises too high for any length of time in winter.

“Conversely, waters that have been too cold on the northern end of their range become increasingly favorable for over-winter survival and spawning. Impacts are greater in the North. We’ve seen a 4°C to 5°C change in average annual temperatures. Smallmouths spawn earlier and find optimal conditions for growth more often than in the past. Rising populations of bass can spread into niches classically held by walleyes. Recruitment is just unbelievable right now for warmwater species. Black crappies are appearing in places where we’ve never had them before.”

Dr. Peter Colby, former head of the walleye research program for the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, has ideas about which lakes may become even better walleye lakes in the near future, due to warming, according to Pyzer. Rainy Lake, already on fire, has slot-limits and a lower limit of 3 fish, but numbers and size seem to be on the upswing due to a combination of environmental factors, as well. Meanwhile, Colby thinks Lake Nipigon, always a phenomenal lake-trout water but a nominal walleye fishery, might turn the corner to become optimal for walleyes. It’s a very large lake, and, like Lake of the Woods and Lac Seul, two world-class waters, big lakes will be the real winners for walleyes in a global-warming scenario.

“Alberta and other mountainous areas with walleyes have higher water temperatures in spring, now,” Pyzer says. “The glaciers are gone, the snowpack is lighter, and the rivers coming out of the mountains are warmer and lower than at any point in recent history, something that has a great impact on fisheries within the Saskatchewan River system.”

Codette Comin’ On

Tim Geni, Regina, Saskatchewan, a former In-Fisherman Professional Walleye Trail pro and professional fisherman, says things are indeed changing on the Saskatchewan River. “Lake Nipawin, a reservoir above Tobin Lake, has been a hot fishery for 25 years, but it’s just caught the public’s eye in the past few years. The lake on top of that system is Codette Lake, and it remains obscure. Average fish size has steadily improved, with lots of 10-pounders and a 14-pounder or two having been reported recently.” The biggest walleye out of Tobin is a recently caught 18-pound 3-ounce behemoth. Are the fish getting bigger in this system because global warming is providing a longer growing season?

“I think quality regulations have a lot to do with it,” Geni says. “Numbers and size have been increasing steadily for 5 years, even though the pressure has increased, which probably has as much to do with the slot-limit as anything else. It was instituted about 8 years ago. All fish between 55 cm (21.6 inches) and 80 cm (31.5 inches) have to be returned to the water immediately. Next year the top of the slot will be 86 cm (33.8 inches), so it’s regulated as a trophy fishery. With that kind of protection, a world record might come out of this system, which is rich with forage options. A 22-inch walleye can weigh 5 pounds here. They look like over-inflated footballs.

“Codette is just a wider, natural riverine basin on the Saskatchewan River, not a reservoir—a great summer fishery,” Geni offers. “July and August are dynamite. Snowmelt we get from the Canadian Rockies in Alberta can last right through summer. Most guys jig or rig the lake and rig the river. In summer, most of the fish are in 12- to 20-foot depths. But they react best to cranks when the water’s dirty. Sometimes they crop the forage base and spread out, and it’s easier to find them by trolling crankbaits.”

Oahe’s Back

Charlie Moore, Tournament Director for the In-Fisherman Professional Walleye Trail, grew up near Lake Oahe in South Dakota. “My dad was a guide there for 20 years,” Moore says. “Right now, it’s better than it’s been for 15 years and improving every year.

“The walleyes are built like footballs, which says the baitfish are back. A 28-inch fish weighs 10 pounds in some cases. That’s the way it used to be on Oahe.”

John Lott, senior fishery biologist for South Dakota Game, Fish and Parks, says: “Oahe is improving all the time. The catch-rate is not as high as it was during the heydays, but we’re seeing better average size, which has climbed above 17 inches. For the last 4 years, the catch-rate has been 1/2 walleye per angler hour, a bit higher than we had in early 1990s after the smelt population bottomed out. When the smelt began to decline, Oahe had a 1 walleye per hour rate. High catch-rates can be a sign that something’s wrong with the forage base. Right now, Oahe has a better supply of food and a better balance between predators and prey. A higher percentage of our walleyes reach lengths of 20 inches or greater. Right now the larger fish are out of the ’94 and ’95 year-classes, which were quite prolific. The 2001 year-class is currently dominant, and those walleyes are between 18 and 20 inches long.

“They reached 20 inches at age 5 in the early 1990s,” Lott continues, “when smelt were abundant. It takes 6 to 7 years now. The predominant forage is split between smelt and gizzard shad. Before 1999 we had no shad in Oahe. We always felt they were too much of a warmwater fish to persist there, but now they’re prolific. We have a more stable food source as a result.” Lott says no evidence suggests that global warming has created conditions favorable to the northward expansion of baitfish like shad.

“One thing people should remember about those high catch-rates in the 1980s and 1990s on Oahe is that the average walleye was 14 inches long,” Lott says. “The peak of the fishing season here occurs mid-May to mid-July, when we have excellent fishing throughout the system. This past fall, the fishing was excellent in the Mobridge and Cheyenne areas.”

Green Bay Resurgence

Paul Peeters, Lake Michigan fishery biologist for the Wisconsin DNR, says that Green Bay walleyes have taken some major hits since the 1980s from the near-constant invasions of exotic species. “Still, it’s better than the 1950s,” he says. “The Fox River couldn’t keep bullheads alive in cages for 2 hours in the 1950s, so there have been huge improvements in water quality. Judicious stocking and habitat improvement have had the most to do with rehabilitating the walleye fishery in Green Bay.”

Tim Dawidiuk, owner of Howie’s Tackle in Sturgeon Bay, Wisconsin, fishes a smallmouth tournament with me each spring on Sturgeon Bay. Last spring, we caught more walleyes than smallmouths for several days, using Lucky Craft Pointer 100 suspending baits along shallow windswept shorelines. The walleyes averaged about 6 pounds. In 10 years, that was the strongest showing we’ve seen for walleyes in Green Bay.

“This was probably the best year for walleyes that Green Bay has ever had,” Dawidiuk says. “Anglers caught lots of fish 15 to 22 inches long. We’ve never had numbers before. This has always been a trophy fishery. Not just in the lower Bay, but in the entirety of Green Bay, we’re still seeing trophy fish but lots more ‘eaters’ than ever before. It’s not a nighttime fishery, anymore, either. It’s happening all day long.”

Best time of year for walleyes? “It’s been great all year so far,” Dawidiuk says. “Spring through early winter on crawler harnesses, suspending baits, and cranks. We haven’t seen the ice season yet, but everybody’s keeping their fingers crossed.”

“We believe that natural reproduction was limited in the Sturgeon Bay area,” Peeters says. “So we’ve been stocking fingerlings in alternate year-classes to improve the fishery. Conditions are better for a walleye population right now because of the mix of species. We’ve been overwhelmed with exotics in Lake Michigan, as most people know, and right now the stars are aligned for walleyes. The mix of predator-prey relationships is favorable to walleyes.”

Rising Shoals

Bull Shoals, which spreads across the Missouri-Arkansas border, entertains famous fisheries for bass, catfish, and crappies. Less notorious is the walleye fishery, which many In-Fisherman Professional Walleye Trail pros say is one of the best in the country right now. It falls into that category within which good populations of walleyes are being somewhat ignored.

Ken Shirley, district fishery supervisor for the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission, says the walleye population has been stable for some time. “Numbers might be rising from an historic perspective, but it’s been stable for the last 4 or 5 years,” he says. “Threadfin shad top the list of forage items, and those populations have been steady, too. Gradually, we’re getting more walleye fishermen, but the main reason for high success rates on Bull Shoals is lack of serious pressure.

“Walleyes reach 17 to 19 inches in their third year in Bull Shoals, which is fast, but they die young,” he continues. “A 7-year-old walleye is rare, here. But by age 6, a female can reach 15 to 18 pounds, and we have a lot of big fish in the system right now.” Shirley says key times to visit Bull Shoals for walleyes include late Prespawn and early Postspawn, the spawn occurring mid- to late March most years.

Walleye pro Scott Glorvigen has been to Bull Shoals many times, most recently during the 2005 PWT event held there. “It’s very unpressured,” he says. “We found walleyes in every section of the reservoir we looked at, which tells us Bull Shoals has a good population. The bass fishermen who catch the occasional walleye are fishing shallow and not really seeing the bulk of this population. Most of the time walleyes seem to set up 18 feet and deeper in Bull Shoals. In stable water conditions, when shad move in to spawn, walleyes collect at the mouths of the bays and baits like Rapala Shad Raps take them effectively.

“Bull Shoals fishes like the prairie reservoirs in the Dakotas,” Glorvigen says. “It has that Midwest feel to it. When you look at the maps and look at the creek arms, I think of Montana and South Dakota. Fish move into shallow brush in rising water in summer, like they do in Oahe or Fort Peck. We caught a lot of fish with bottom-bouncers and spinners along the edge of that shallow brush during June in rising water.”

Increasing numbers could be on the horizon. “Our agency stocks the walleyes in Bull Shoals, and this year we stocked about 400,000,” Shirley says. “Missouri stocks walleyes in their section of the lake.”

Our point in doing a little name dropping is to get you thinking and planning for the season ahead. We’ve focused on a few peaking fisheries, but you also need to follow the status of the fisheries in your immediate area. We often find ourselves spending several years concentrating on one fishery only to head to another, where for one reason or another stats suggest the stars are aligned for walleyes. Just remember that sometimes by the time the word really gets out, it’s too late.