Were the Good Old Days Really Better?

The Results

Three-day tournaments with 5-fish limits: Graphs of the data show substantial variation in both catch rate and average weight over time. From 1977 to 2006, the annual average catch rate ranged from a low of 0.9 fish per angler-day to a high of almost 3.5 fish per angler-day. Analysis revealed a slight, but not statistically significant, downward trend in average catch rate. The lack of statistically significant difference in catch rate over time means the average catch rate of 2.2 bass per angler-day is the best estimator of catch rate for the whole time period.

The average weight of bass caught ranged from a high of 3.3 pounds to a low of 1.5 pounds. Average weight each year increased slightly over time, but again it was not statistically significant. Average weight over 35 years was 2.33 pounds.

Four-day tournaments with 5-fish limits: This format began in 1987. Catch rate changed little from 1987 to 2006 and averaged 3.7 bass per angler day. This catch rate was significantly higher than the 2.2 bass per angler day in the 3-day, 5-fish-limit events.

Average bass weight generally declined from 1987 to 2006, but the trend was not statistically significant. The average weight per bass of 2.13 pounds was not significantly different from the average weight in the 3-day events.

Three-day tournaments with 7- and 10-fish limits: From 1978 through 1993, 7-fish limits prevailed. Catch rate and average weight increased over time but these trends were not statistically significant. Catch rate averaged 2.2 bass per angler-day and 2.20 pounds per fish in these tournaments, values not significantly different from catch rates and weight per fish in 3-day, 5-fish-limit tournaments.

From 1972 through 1977, the limit was 10 bass and I didn’t analyze trends for this short period. Catch rate in these tournaments averaged 2.8 fish per angler day and 2.34 pounds per fish, not significantly different from catch rates and fish weights in 3-day tournaments with 5-fish or 7-fish limits.

Catch weights for the best of the best: Tournament anglers vary in skill level, knowledge of the water, and fishing strengths. Certainly these characteristics affect catch, and researchers call this “uncontrolled variation.” To minimize the effect of different anglers, I analyzed the total weight of bass caught by the top 12 anglers in each event.

In 3-day tournaments with both 5- and 7-fish limits, total weights caught by the top 12 anglers increased slightly since 1977 but the trend wasn’t statistically significant. In 4-day, 5-fish-limit events, total weights caught by the top 12 anglers decreased over time but, again, the trend wasn’t statistically significant.

Interpretation

After examining these results, a researcher would say, “These results fail to refute the hypothesis of no differences in catch per angler day or average weight of fish caught.” In simpler terms, these analysis do not point to a clear upward or downward trend in either catch rate or average size of bass caught. In other words, based on the catches recorded by better anglers across a wide range of good waters, neither catch rate nor average size of bass is higher or lower than it was in past decades.

This suggests that despite the often-cited increases in bass fishing pressure, bass populations remain generally in good shape. State to state, water to water, fishery assessments also show good abundances of bass. Longterm comparisons of bass abundance are constrained by changes in sampling efficiency and sampling design, so routine fishery assessments lack the precision to detect small changes in abundance. Nevertheless, there’s no biological evidence of widespread declines in bass populations in recent decades.